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Weekly report: positive market outlook drove futures prices up

Weekly report: positive market outlook drove futures prices up Source:
Date: 20-01-2012
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As Spring Festival approaches, China\'s cotton e-trade market continued its rise and supassed spot prices, espacially the middle or long term contracts which were estimated 1,000 Yuan per ton higher than the provisional reserve price, indicating a positive market outlook from cotton companies. The provisional reserve trade volume had distinctive decrease due to the conservative attitides of cotton traders. At the same time, the seed cotton procurement was smooth, both farmers and ginners in Yellow River valley were very active with the trade before holiday at generally stalbe prices.

After entering 2012, China??s e-trade market kept rising. All ZCE cotton contracts and CNCE contracts after March increased to more than 20,000 Yuan per ton, and all contracts after May of CNCE had surpassed 21,000 Yuan per ton. Since the rebound of domestic spot market in the middle of December, the spot market continued to regain its lost ground, although with smaller pace than e-trade market, and the gap between futures and spot prices were enlarged. On 13rd, January, CC Index328 increased 56 Yuan over previous week to 19,246 Yuan per ton. The average settlement price of CNCE MA1201 increased 201 Yuan over previous week to 19,706 Yuan per ton; ZCE cotton futures nearby contract CF201 increased 240 Yuan over previous week to 20,095 Yuan per ton at the weekend.

Currently, many mills as well as textile companies held positive outlook at the market; therefore, ginners preferred withholding instead of selling them to reserve. The reserve trade volume decreased obviously, caused by transport cost increase for some inland ginners due overload of some warehouses in Xinjiang and recent negative weather factors. The reserve target of previous week was 613,300 ton, however, the actual trade volume decreased largely, even no actual trade happened in Xinjiang on 13rd. The weekly actual trade volume nationwide was 118,060 ton, among which 19,000 ton in Xinjiang, and 99,060 ton in Inland. By 13rd, January, the cumulative total trade volume nationwide for provincial reserve trade in 2011 season was 2,465,730 ton, among which 1,518,600 ton in Xinjiang, accounting for 61,6%; and 947,130 ton in Inland, accounting for 38.4%.

This week, the seed cotton trade procurement price in Inland was generally stable. According to survey of CCA cotton processing industry, the seed cotton trade in Yellow River valley continued its hot time before New Year?? Day holiday.

Companies were very active at procuring, ended with large daily trade volumes. The weekly average procurement price for seed cotton type 328 was 8,16 Yuan per kilo, similar to last week. In Yangtze valley, the procurement entered the final phase with largely reduced seed cotton tradable left in the market and nearly half traders stopped procurement. The average procurement price of type 328 increased 0.02 Yuan over previous week to 8.19 Yuan per ton.

At the weekend, FC Index was 107,14 cent per pound, which was 17,250 Yuan per ton under 1% tariff quota, 1,996 Yuan lower than domestic equivalence; and 17,726 Yuan per ton under sliding duties, 1,532 Yuan lower than domestic equivalence.

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